Who is ready to support the German energy transition?

Abstract

The transformation of the energy system is a complex process that is significantly influenced, among other factors, by public resonances, debates and opinion structures. Research into citizens’ attitudes towards energy infrastructures and policies has therefore become an important focus of social science energy research in Germany and beyond. In this context, this article aims to address the following two research gaps: a) exploring potential variations in attitudes towards the German energy transition between social groups, and b) analyzing the development of attitudes towards the German energy transition over time. We draw on longitudinal data from the GESIS Panel and employ a fairly novel combination of structural equation modeling (SEM) and machine learning models, namely SEM Trees based on a latent growth curve model (LGCM). Our analysis shows that attitudes towards the energy transition are notably stable over time and exhibit only minimal changes. The SEM Tree approach reveals that an ecological worldview in particular (measured by the New Ecological Paradigm scale), alongside education level and household net income are the most relevant variables for identifying subgroups with distinct perception profiles regarding the German energy transition.